人口老龄化对日本经济的影响分析/

2019-05-11 02:58:49

economic population aging Japan 人口老龄化



中文摘要
目前,越来越多的国家,也包括发展中国家——中国都步入了老龄化社会,人口老龄化(graying of population)不再仅仅是发达国家的“富贵病”,已经成为全世界面临的共同难题。1970年日本65岁以上老年人口在总人口中所占比例超过7%,成为亚洲最早进入人口老龄化社会的国家,同时也成为人口老龄化“东亚模式”的典型代表。在30多年应对人口老龄化的过程中,日本建立了较为完善的法律法规和应对措施,积累了较为丰富的经验。本文分析日本人口老龄化对经济发展,特别是对日本近年来经济长期低迷的影响,以及日本为应对人口老龄化而采取的相关措施,并为中国应对人口老龄化问题,促进经济发展提出建议。
本文首先分析了日本经济发展与人口发展的关系,特别是经济腾飞和低迷时期人口因素的作用。简单介绍日本经济发展和人口年龄结构变化情况后,提出:人口老龄化不仅仅是人口问题,更是经济社会问题,与国家经济发展密切相关,在日本的经济腾飞奇迹与长期低迷中都可以发现人口年龄结构变化的作用。
本文重点探讨了人口老龄化对日本经济发展,尤其是长期低迷的影响。人口老龄化问题对日本经济的影响是潜在的、全方位的并越来越深刻。本文尝试分析了人口老龄化对劳动力供给、社会保障、储蓄和消费、产业结构调整、技术创新等五个方面的影响。
第一,人口老龄化影响劳动力供给。劳动力是促进经济增长的要素之一,人口老龄化社会中出生率下降,少年儿童人口所占比例减少,总人口数量也相应减少,这将造成创造经济财富的主力军——劳动年龄人口供给的减少,产生劳动力短缺问题。而另一个方面,老年人口增加,人口平均年龄提高,从而引发劳动力队伍年龄老化。短缺并且老化的劳动力队伍将给经济发展带来冲击。同时,适龄劳动人口的减少和劳动力队伍的老化还会冲击日本经济腾飞的“三大神器”(年功序列制、终身雇佣制、企业内工会)中的年功序列制和终身雇佣制,进而影响企业竞争能力,制约企业发展。
第二,人口老龄化冲击日本的社会保障制度。随着日本人口老龄化程度不断加深,老年人口日益增多,需要社会保障支付的养老金、医疗费也迅速增长,相对应的,由于劳动年龄人口的逐渐减少,交纳养老和医疗保险的人口呈不断减少趋势,社会保障机构运营越来越困难,将会产生社会保障支付危机。
第三,人口老龄化影响社会的储蓄和消费。从劳动年龄人口看,作为储蓄意愿最强的中青年劳动人口的减少,会引起储蓄率的下降;而由于人口老龄化问题引发的中青年劳动者对未来的悲观预期,又会造成消费意愿的下降,从而产生储蓄和消费的同时降低。从老年人口看,不断增多的老年人口的消费偏好将会造成老年用品消费增加,引起社会消费结构、方式的转变;老年人口消费倾向较高、储蓄意愿较低,不仅现今储蓄少,而且还要使用以前的储蓄,这也会造成储蓄的下降。人口老龄化引发的储蓄降低、消费结构转变,将影响到投资和消费,进而影响到经济发展。
第四,人口老龄化造成的劳动力供给变化和消费需求变化也会制约产业结构调整。青年劳动力供给的减少会影响到产业的升级换代,制约劳动密集型产业、工作流动性大产业、知识更新较快产业、劳动强度相对大产业的发展。随着人口老龄化过程的推进,老年人口成为社会的优势成份,也会影响产业调整,面向老年人需要的产品需求增强,相关产业有所发展;出生率下降,少年儿童人口比重减少,面向儿童和青少年的产品需求下降,相关产业将萎缩。
第五,人口老龄化还会影响技术创新。科技是当今经济发展的最关键因素,人口总数减少,人口年龄老化,必然导致技术人才队伍的减少和老化,而技术创新能力最强的中青年人才的减少,将导致科技创新能力弱化,科技发展也会弱化。同时,老年人口消费需求较为固定,消费倾向不易变化,因而对新产品、新技术的需求欲望相对较低,这也会影响新技术、新产业的发展和成熟,从而影响到技术创新。技术创新能力的下降,其结果将导致经济发展后继乏力。
日本应对人口老龄化问题,也经历了一个逐渐认识发展的过程。日本最初对人口老龄化问题的认识更多地停留在人口问题的表面,关心的主要是养老问题,认为人口老龄化问题的影响更多地限于社会保障方面。另外,飞速发展的经济也掩盖了人口老龄化问题对经济的影响。但是,随着经济进入长期低迷时期,人口老龄化对日本经济社会的影响日益加深,日本政府关于人口老龄化问题的立法及应对措施明显加大了力度,相关立法连年出台,应对措施也日趋完善。
面对来势凶猛的人口老龄化问题,日本政府主要采取了以下措施:一是鼓励女性生育和就业,刺激消费增长。加大公共财政投入,采取鼓励生育措施,努力做到让日本年轻人“愿意生、容易生、容易养”。二是改革社会保障制度,促进经济稳定发展。通过改革养老保险、医疗保险制度,着力解决老年人的“后顾之忧”问题,努力做到“老有所养、老有所医”。对公共养老基金实行统一管理和投资,在基础建设投资、促进经济复苏等方面发挥重要作用。三是鼓励老年人就业,缓解劳动力缺口。通过设立“银色人才中心”,严格规定企业老年职工最低比例,对雇佣老年职工企业予以补助及相应贷款优惠等政策,让更多有劳动能力和意愿的老年人走上工作岗位,努力做到“老有所为”。四是实施“黄金计划”,推动老龄产业发展。日本政府积极推进老年人保健福利计划战略,带动了老龄产业迅速发展并走向成熟,开始发挥拉动经济作用。“黄金计划”着力解决老年人口的生活困难,让老人都拥有健康和幸福的晚年,努力做到“老有所乐”。日本政府应对人口老龄化相关配套措施,不仅有效解决人口老龄化问题,对现今日本经济复苏也具有促进作用。
本文最后是日本经验对中国应对人口老龄化问题的启示与结论。“未富先老”的中国在人口老龄化问题上,与发达国家相比更加复杂,应对起来也将更加棘手。基于中日两国在人口老龄化问题上存在诸多相似之处,因此,日本在30多年应对人口老龄化问题方面的有益经验,对中国具有借鉴意义。结合日本经验,中国应高度重视人口老龄化问题。本文针对中国应对人口老龄化问题提出了五点建议:一是积极发展经济,提高经济承受能力;二是完善社会保障体系,构筑社会安全网络;三是发挥市场机制,大力发展老龄产业;四是把握利用“人口红利”,实现可持续发展;五是做好长期面对人口老龄化压力的准备。





Abstract
More and more countries, including developing countries—China, have stepped into the aging society at present. The graying of population is no longer only "rich and powerful disease" in the developed country, but has already become the common problem all over the world. Japan became the first country entering the aging society in Asia with the population over 65 exceeding 7% of total proportion in 1970. Meanwhile, Japan is the typical representative of "mode of east-Asia" of aging population. Japan has set up comparatively complete laws and regulations, and has accumulated comparatively abundant experience in the course of dealing with aging population for over 30 years. This text analyzes the impact of the graying of population on Japan’s economic development, especially on Japan’s long-term economic depressing in recent years and the relevant measures of Japan to deal with the graying of population and puts forward the suggestion on China’s aging population problem in order to boom the development of economy.
This text has firstly analyzed the relationship between Japan's economy and graying of population, and the role of population factor during the economic depressing. After brief introducing Japan's economic development and the change of the population age structure, the text proposes author's view: Graying of population is not merely a population issue, but an economic social issue, closely related to the national economic development. The function of the change of population age structure can be found both from economic liftoff miracle and long-term depression of Japan.
This text has made a further study on the impact of graying of population that is potential, complete, and profound to Japan's economic development, especially to the long-term depressing. This text tries to analyze the influences on five respects such as workforce's supply, social security, deposit and consumption, industrial structure adjustment, technological innovation of aging population.
Firstly, graying of population influences the workforce supply. The workforce is one of the key elements of booming the economic growth. The birth rate is falling in the aging society; the proportion of Children and teenagers of the total is getting smaller and the amount of population is reducing. Therefore, the employable workforce, the main force to create social wealth, has become shortage. On the other hand, the increasing amount of the elders — another respect of the aging population — will cause the increasing of average age of population; furthermore, will result in the graying of population and strike the economic development. Meanwhile, the reduction of the workforce of the right age, and aging of workforce can strike the array of annual work, and lifetime employment system — two of the “three major miracle systems” (the array of annual work, lifetime employment system, and trade union in enterprises) to the economic liftoff that called by Japanese themselves — in which the crisis of distribution and employing system will influence enterprises’ competition, and restrain enterprises developing.
Secondly, aging population will assault the social security system. As Japan's aging population intensity is being strengthened constantly, elder population increases day by day, pension needs to be paid by social security, and medical fees are increased rapidly too. Correspondingly, it is more and more difficult to run the social security for the government that will arouse the paying crisis of the social security because the more the elders are, the less the government gets from pension paid by employable citizens, whereas the government has to pay more money to support the living of the aged and the medical insurance.
Thirdly, aging population influences the deposits and consumption of the society. On the aspect of employable population, the declining of young and middle-aged employable population who has the strongest desire to deposit will cause the decline of the deposit rate. However, because the pessimistic expectancy of young and middle-aged labors to future results from the aging population, the declining of employable population will also cause the decline of the consumption and the low deposit rate with the decreasing of the consumption intending. On the respect of the aged population, the consumption partiality of aged population will cause the increasing of old articles consumption constantly, and it will cause the change of social consumption structure and style. The propensity to consumption of aged population is high; but the deposit rate is relatively low. The elders not only consume the deposit in the past, but also will cause the decline of depositing money in the future. Hence, it is inevitable to influence investment and economic development with the low deposit rate and the changing consumption structure of the aging population.
Fourthly, the workforce’s change of supply and consumption that caused by the aging population can restrict industrial structure adjustment. The reduction of the young workforce supply caused by the graying population will influence the upgrading of the industry; will restrict the development of relevant industry, such as labor-intensive industry, working flowability intensive industry, fast renewal knowledge industry, hard labor intensity industry, and so on. The aging population becomes the advantage compositions of the society because of the more and more aged population in society. This phenomenon will influence the adjustment of the industry, resulting in that the developing of relevant industries is strengthened to satisfy the demand for the elders’ need; On the contrary, the relevant industries for producing goods for children and teenagers will shrink and slump because of the dropping of birth rate, and the reducing number of young people.
Fifthly, aging population will also influence the technological innovation. Science and technology is the most key factor of current economic development. However, with the decline of total amount of population, and graying of population, and the reducing of young and middle-aged talents with strongest technological innovation ability, it is inevitable that the technicians become less and older, scientific and technological innovation ability is weakened, the development in science and technology will be weakened too. Meanwhile, the aging population has comparatively fixed consumption demand, and does not change the propensity to consume easily, therefore the elders’ desire for demand new product, new technology is so low that this will influence the new technology, new development and ripe of industry, and influence the technological innovation. The decline of the talents and technological innovation ability will eventually cause weakly development on economy.
Japan has experienced a gradually development course in dealing with the aging population problem. The initial understanding of aging population problem of Japan is on the surface of the population issue, caring about the question of the aging life, focusing on being subject to the social security. In addition, the economy developed at full speed has concealed the influence of the aging population problem too. However, the Japanese government has obviously strengthened the legislation and measures about the aging population problem, and relevant legislation is issued year after year, the measure is becoming more and more complete with Japan's economy long-term dispirit, the intensification day by day of the economic social influence of aging population because of the further affect on economic society.
Japanese Government pays close attention to the aging population problem. For example, the government took the measure of men and women’s participating in the management together and selecting younger gentlemen to take on the position of minister in the cabinet in 2005. In the face of the tremendous aging population problem, Japanese Government has mainly taken the following measures: First, the Government encourages women to have more children, to go to work, to stimulate the consumption. The Government takes multiple measures to encourage Japanese young people to live in the condition of "pregnancy voluntarily, delivering easily, raising easily." by encouraging having more children, enlarging the investment in the public affairs, and protecting the right of women; meanwhile, takes methods to raise the consumption and revive the economy. Second, the Government reforms the social security system and brings about an advance in economic stability. Through reforming the endowment insurance, medical insurance system, the government puts forth effort to solve the elders' "worry" problem, tries hard to "look after elders carefully, provides elders with proper medical treatment", manages and makes the investment to the public pension fund in unison, which plays an important role in such aspects as basic construction investment, promotion economic recovery. Third, the Government promotes the aged to obtain employment, through setting up "silvery talent's centre", stipulating enterprise's old employees’ minimum proportion strictly. The government applies favorable policy of corresponding loan to run enterprises and subsidizing to the aging population, relieves the pressure of employees’ shortage, and makes the employable aged people, who try hard to "do something in the old age", go on working. Fourth, the government carries out "the gold plan" to promote the development of old industry. Japanese Government has advanced the aged health care welfare plan strategy actively to drive the old industry to develop rapidly, and make it become maturity. As a result, it plays an important role in spurring economy. The "gold plan" puts forth effort to solve the difficulties of the aged people’s life, makes the old all live healthy and happy lives, tries hard to "provide the old with opportunities to enjoy themselves". Japanese Government’s relevant supplementary measures of aging population not only solve the aging population problem effectively, but also solve Japan's economic recovery helpfully.
In the last part, this text focuses on the enlightenment and conclusion of the Japanese experience on the aging population to China. The graying of population in China, where is "not rich but old first", is more complicated and difficult to solve compared with the developed countries. Therefore, the beneficial experiences and lessons of Japan during over 30 years are great help to China because there are a great deal of similar characteristics on graying of population between Japan and China. With Japan's experience, this article puts forward five proposals in view of China to the graying population problem: First, develop the economy positively and improve the economy bearing capacity; second, perfect the social security system and set up the social security network; third, China should display the market system and develop the elders’ industry vigorously; fourth, China should use "the population dividend" to realizes the sustainable development; fifth, prepare for the pressure of the graying population for a long time.