内蒙古火电发展区域环境影响研究/

2019-05-10 21:50:28

power development energy inner Mongolia



本论文针对“十五”末期内蒙古火电发展迅猛的现象,以可持续发展观为指导思想,利用能源弹性系数将经济、环境和能源有机地联系起来,研究内蒙古火电发展将产生的区域环境影响。“十五”期间国家对拟建项目的环境影响评价管理处于项目环境影响评价层面,2004-2005年内蒙古发展的火电厂项目未曾开展过规划环境影响评价,而随着《中华人民共和国环境影响评价法》的颁布实施和《国务院关于落实科学发展观加强环境保护的决定》等文件的出台,我们越来越清醒地认识到经济与环境和谐发展的重要性,也感觉到项目层次的环境影响评价不易控制“十五”末期内蒙古火电厂项目集群式发展在区域范围内产生的环境影响。
从科学发展观的角度,在人类发展进步的过程中,人们应将保护环境与经济增长并重,使环境保护和经济发展同步,综合运用法律、经济、技术和必要的行政办法解决环境问题,最终实现经济发展与环境保护和谐。按这种发展观念,人们在进行经济活动中应主动考虑环境影响,考虑所处地区的环境和资源承载力。但从2004-2005年内蒙古火电厂项目集群式发展来看,该地区的经济发展没有主动考虑环境和资源影响,而是环境保护主管部门通过环境影响评价、总量控制等手段控制了该种发展的环境和资源影响,因而2004-2005年内蒙古拟建火电厂项目环境影响评价控制水平、“十五”期间内蒙古经济发展水平和能源消费水平以及“十一五”期间内蒙古火电生产将产生的环境影响等一系列相关问题是研究内蒙古火电迅猛发展现象中需要解答的必要问题和主要问题,这些问题的解答有助于内蒙古地区可持续发展战略研究。
本论文选取2004-2005年内蒙古地区上报国家环境保护行政主管部门的60个火电厂项目作为研究对象,从这些项目的环境影响报告书中提取有关信息,从“十五”期间内蒙古统计年鉴、中国电力年鉴、中国统计年鉴等资料中获取内蒙古“十五”期间经济发展、能源利用状况等信息,研究了以下几个方面的内容:
首先研究了目前火电厂项目环境影响评价中污染物控制水平、煤炭能源和水资源消耗及节约利用的水平,结果表明:即使内蒙古2004年拟建项目全部建成投产,在火电装机容量增加3368×104kW的情况下,SO2排放量仅增加0.8×104t/a;通过对城市中水、矿井疏干水的使用,节约新鲜水用量超过1×108t/a,环境影响评价中对火电厂项目的SO2总量控制和节约用水控制效果较好。火电厂项目的环境影响评价有效地控制了火电厂项目的污染物排放,促进了资源的综合利用。但是,项目环境影响评价处于“政策-规划-计划-项目”决策列的末端,对火电发展的控制和引导能力仍显不足,具有很大的局限性。内蒙古地区存在SO2排放量超出总量指标问题、水资源匮乏问题,以及作为能源输出地如何实现可持续发展的问题;我国工业化进程中存在着煤炭在能源消费比重中的持续上升的长期趋势,面临着如何加强火电行业环境保护的问题,这些问题的解决都要求开展规划环境影响评价,并将循环经济指标等纳入其中综合考虑。
其次,研究了“十五”期间内蒙古地区经济发展模式与环境、资源和谐的程度。本论文通过对国内外几十年来能源弹性系数的调研,得出能源弹性系数正常值(0.5)。将我国“十五”期间能源发展与能源弹性系数正常值进行对比,发现能源生产弹性系数和能源消费弹性系数均较大幅度超出正常值,说明我国“十五”期间经济发展对能源依赖较大,对环境和资源的压力较大。出现这种现象固然有高耗能产业迅速扩张、产业结构变化、居民生活消费的能源快速增长等客观原因,但不可否认的是,这几年我国经济快速增长是在消费大量能源和原材料基础上取得的,经济增长方式仍然很粗放,并由此造成能源供需缺口不断扩大,能源价格持续上涨和运输紧张。将内蒙古“十五”期间能源发展与我国同时期能源发展以及能源弹性系数正常值进行对比,发现内蒙古能源生产弹性系数相对较大,能源消费弹性系数在“十五”期间呈回落趋势。这说明内蒙古能源生产和输出较大,合理规划能源生产非常必要;说明内蒙古对能源的消费观念已发生变化,正在实现消费模式的基本转变。将内蒙古分行业能源消费比重与全国能源消费情况对比发现,内蒙古工业能源消费所占比重较大,生活能源消费所占比重较小,制造业能源消费比重相对较小,黑色金属冶炼及压延加工业在内蒙古制造业中所占比重过大。而高耗能行业的比重较高,不利于地区经济发展模式升级。
通过对内蒙古火电发展与能源消费相关性分析发现,内蒙古能源消费稳步下降的主要原因是2002-2004年内蒙古火电生产弹性系数变化较小、比较稳定。但“十五”末期内蒙古火电迅猛增长,而且在内蒙古自治区发展改革委员会公布的重点招商引资项目名单中高耗能项目比重很大,因此,火电迅猛发展引发新一轮高耗能工业的无序发展具有很大的可能性。
再次,预测了“十一五”期间该区火电生产将产生的环境影响和资源压力,按内蒙古火电发展速度的不同分3种情景对这60个火电厂项目进行分析讨论,得到内蒙古火电发展将带来的大气污染物产生量、排放量和煤炭资源的消耗量。通过对火电发展环境、资源影响分析,比较三种情景,认为内蒙古“十一五”期间应控制火电生产弹性系数在2.5以下,向1.5靠拢,按这种方案发展,火电年消耗煤炭量在1.4×108t的范围内,年排放SO2量约70×104t,年排放NOx 量约60×104t,能耗量和排污量比2004年增长达40%-200%。按2008年内蒙古地区火电行业SO2排放量约占总量的55%计算,此方案对2008年内蒙古地区SO2排放量的预测值为137.8×104t,超出内蒙古“十五”时期总量控制要求的SO2排放量在62×104t内的指标。这种火电发展仍是超常规的较快发展,存在着引发高耗能行业重新兴起、小煤窑无序建设的风险。因此,要严格控制能源消费弹性系数保持在2004年达到的0.5左右的水平。要想实现这个目标,必须坚持经济发展模式的转变,把节能降耗和调整产业结构提高到内蒙古地区发展战略高度上来。




This paper is based primarily on the phenomenon of rapid thermal power development in Inner Mongolia at the end of the 10th five –year Plan Period, take sustainable development as leading thoughts, link the economy, energy and environment organically with the elasticity ratio of energy, research the environmental impact of the thermal power development in Inner Mongolia at the regional level.The national environmental impact assessment (EIA) control of proposed projects is at the project management level, and the thermal power plant projects in Inner Mongolia from 2004 to 2005 had not been planning to carry out an Plan EIA. As the promulgating of the “Environmental impact assessment law of the people’s republic of China” and implementing of “Decision of State Council on the implementation of scientific development view to strengthen environmental protection” and other documents, we are soberly aware of the importance of economic development in harmony with the environment, also felt that the environmental impact assessment at project level is not easy to control the environmental impact of the thermal power plant projects at the regional cluster-style development in Inner Mongolia at the end of the 10th five –year Plan Period.
From the perspective of scientific development view, it should be equal the importance of environmental protection with economic growth, and make comprehensive use of legal, economic, technical and administrative solutions to the necessary environmental problems and ultimately achieve harmonious economic development and environmental protection in the course of human development and progress. By this development view, people should take the environmental impact of economic activity into account initiatively and consider carrying capacity of the environment and resources in different area.However, the cluster-style development of the thermal power plant projects in Inner Mongolia from 2004 to 2005 indicates that the impact to the environment and resources wasn’t considered much in regional economic development, and the environmental impact of the thermal power plant projects was controlled through the environmental impact assessment and the total emission control (TEC) of sulfur dioxide emissions by the state environmental protection administration. Therefore, a series of related issues such as the EIA control level of the thermal power plants proposed in Inner Mongolia from 2004 to 2005, the level of economic development and energy consumption in Inner Mongolia at the end of the 10th five –year Plan Period, and the environmental impact of the thermal power production in Inner Mongolia during the 11th five –year Plan Period, is the necessary questions and the main questions studying of the phenomenon of rapid thermal power development in Inner Mongolia, the answers of these questions can help to research the sustainable development strategy in Inner Mongolia.
The Inner Mongolia is chosen as the case study area in which 60 thermal power projects are proposed to carry out in 2004-2005. This paper collects the relevant data from the EIA statements of these proposed projects, and obtain the data about economic development and energy use from the Inner Mongolia Statistical Yearbook, China Electric Power Yearbook and China's Inner Mongolia Statistical Yearbook during the 10th five –year Plan Period, the research include the following contents :
Firstly, study the current levels of pollutants control, coal consumption and water use and saving in the project EIA of thermal power plant projects. The analyzing results indicate that the total emission control of sulfur dioxide emissions and water consumption control measures are feasible. In the condition of the installed capacity increasing by 3.3×107kW, the amount of SO2 would only increase 8kt/a, even though all of the projects would be carried out. By the means of utilization of the urban water and mine drainage, the amount of fresh water saved would exceed 1×108t/a. However, the environmental impact assessment at project level is the bottom of the decision-making in the “policy-planning-plan-project”,the control and guide capacity to the development of thermal power remained inadequate, with significant limitations.The proposed thermal power projects demand index of the total emission control of sulfur dioxide emissions,of which is lack, and demand considerable water supplies, which will worsen the local problem of lacking of water resource. As a major export region of energy resource, the Inner Mongolia deserves the development in a sustainable manner. The suggestion put forward in the paper is that the Plan EIA should be employed more extensively and taken into the consideration of the index of recycle economy.
Secondly, the paper study the economic development model and the harmony level between the economic and environment. The normal value of elasticity ratio of energy (0.5) is find through investigation of decades of elasticity ratio of energy at home and abroad. Compared the China's energy development during the 10th Five-Year Plan period with the normal value of elasticity ratio of energy, we found the former significantly exceeded the latter. This phenomenon indicates that the China’s economy development depended on energy at a high level, and gave great pressure on the environment and resources. There are objective reasons such as the high-energy industries expanded rapidly, industrial change, residents living energy consumption rapid growth for this phenomenon, but it is undeniable that the rapid growth of China's economy in recent years is based on substantive consumption of energy and raw materials, and the mode of economic growth is still very extensive, and resulted in the energy supply and demand gap widening, energy prices rising and transportation constraints.
Compared the energy development in Inner Mongolia during the 10th Five-Year Plan period with the China's energy development during the same period and the normal value of elasticity ratio of energy, and it can be found that the elasticity ratio of energy production was large, and the elasticity ratio of energy consumption has come down. It shows that the energy production and output was large, so it’s necessary to make energy production plan in reason. It also shows that the energy consumption view in Inner Mongolia has changed and the consumption patterns haschanged fundamentally. Compare Inner Mongolia’s energy consumption by industrial branch with the national energy consumption, it can be found that the proportion of industrial energy consumption is comparatively large, and the proportion of residents living energy consumption is comparatively small, the proportion of manufacturing energy consumption is comparatively small, black metal smelting and rolling processing industry in Inner Mongolia excessively share of the manufacturing sector. And the large proportion of high-energy industries, is not conducive to the regional economic development model upgrade.
It can be found that the main cause of the steady decline in the Inner Mongolia energy consumption is the stable elasticity ratio of thermal power production. However, the thermal power development in Inner Mongolia at the end of the 10th Five-Year Plan Period is rapid, and the proportion of high-energy projects is large in the list of priority investment projects published by the Development Reform Commission in Inner Mongolia. Therefore, a new round of disorderly development of high-energy industries that triggered by the rapid development of thermal power has great possibilities.
Thirdly, the environmental impact and resource pressures bringed with the electricity production is forecasted and discussed in 3 kinds of scene with different speed of thermal power development, and the value of the atmospheric pollutants production and emission, and the coal resources consumption is educed. Through analysis of the environmental impact and the compare of the 3 scenes, it deems that the elasticity ratio of thermal power production should be controlled below 2.5 and downwards to 1.5. According to this kind of development, coal consumption by thermal power production will be 140 million t/a, SO2 emissions will be about 0.7 million t/a, NOX emissions will be about 0.6 million t/a, the volume of energy consumption and pollution discharge in 2008 will increase 40% to 200% than 2004. The value of SO2 emissions from thermal power generation sector is accounted for about 55% of the total, the value of SO2 emissions forecased is 1.37 million t/a, and will overstep the index of the total emission control of sulfur dioxide emissions which is 0.62 million t/a. Such a kind of thermal power generation development remains an unconventional rapid development, there are risks such as re-emergence of high-energy industries and small coal disorderly construction. Therefore, the elasticity ratio of energy consumption should be control strictly to maintain the value of 0.5 reached in 2004. To achieve this goal, we should insist the changing of economic development model, take energy consumption reducing and industrial structure adjusting into account as the development strategic.