日本财政政策失误的经济学分析/

2019-04-26 16:18:05

government financial 日本 economy Japan



1990年初开始的股价以及后来的地价暴跌,也就是所谓“泡沫经济”的崩溃,使得日本经济元气大伤,并从此开始陷入了长达11年之久的衰退和萧条之中,其间“即使偶有增长,也短暂而微弱”。比如,1992—1995年日本的实际GDP增长率平均仅为1%稍强。虽然1996年在政策刺激和“提前消费”的作用下,日本经济曾实现了3.9%的增长,但是1997年由于政府政策失误,再加上亚洲金融危机的影响,日本经济又一下跌入到0.7%的负增长。1998年日本政府被迫采取了减免所得税和居民税、增加公共事业投资和福利支出等一系列刺激经济的措施,但是仍没能扭转日本经济当年0.4%的负增长局面。1999年4月以后日本经济又一次出现了缓慢的回升,但是从2000年8月份开始重新出现滑坡。特别是从2001年年初起,由于受美国经济减速和石油价格上升的影响,日本出口和设备投资减退,个人消费低迷,物价持续下跌。2月份,日本的消费物价指数(CPI)的增长速度为-0.6%,达到1999年以来的最低水平。2001年3月6日日本政府宣布经济已经陷入战后从未出现过的通货紧缩状态。日本在2001年第一季度取得了微小的正增长率。但是,日本经济在第二季度收缩了3.2%,从而宣告了日本经济在10年中第三次陷入衰退。
“泡沫经济”崩溃以来,为实现经济景气的回升,日本政府奉行凯恩斯主义,在降低利率和增加货币供应量的扩张性货币政策的配合下,多次实施了以扩大公共事业支出为主的扩张性财政政策,企图通过财政刺激使日本经济在短期内甚至快速增长。比如1992年8月宫泽喜一内阁首次实施了10.7万亿日元规模的所谓“综合经济对策”,其后历届政府纷纷仿效。迄今为止,日本政府先后共推出10次类似的刺激经济对策,涉及政府收支规模达130多万亿日元。应该说,上个世纪的最后十年,扩张性的财政政策在日本政府对其经济的反周期调节过程中发挥了重要的作用,在一定程度上“熨平”了日本经济的下滑之波。
但是,由于受指导理论以及政策失误的影响,特别是其自身体制与制度“疲劳”等的制约,在经济持续萎靡不振的大背景下,日本的财政和经济之间始终没有能够形成“财政带动增长,增长反哺财政”的良性循环,而日本最终也陷入了经济危机和财政困境的双重泥潭。在经济低速增长的阴霾将继续笼罩和人口老龄化急速发展的情况下,日本财政的发展趋势也难以看好。小泉上台后虽然力主改革,也在去年6月份公布了《经济财政运营基本方针》。但是由于它既包含有向官僚体制“开刀”的内容,推行时又与当时日本经济的现状相矛盾,因此小泉的结构改革只能是“步履维艰”。在对日本财政困境的分析中也得到了对目前我国财政政策运用有益的几点启示。
本文共分五大部分,第一部分通过对财政赤字、国债依存度和政府债务余额等三个主要财政指标的分析,说明日本的财政现已处于非常困难的境地。第二部分重点从理论根源、直接原因、问题实质和政府责任等四个方面,对日本陷入财政困境的原因进行了剖析。第三部分主要讨论了小泉内阁的经济财政结构改革计划。最后,结合以上分析在第四部分提出了对目前我国财政政策运用的几点启示。



Stock price and later on price of land that begin slump, that is to say so-called collapse of " bubble economy " will it be the beginning 1990, make Japan's economy sap one's vitality, and in the decline and depression that had begun to fall into for 11 years from then on, " even there is growth occasionally, transient and faint " during that time. For example, real GDP rate of increase of Japan is only that 1% is slightly strong equally in 1992- 199. Though under the function that the policy was stimulated and " consuming ahead of time ", Japan's economy has realized 3.9% of the growth in 1996, but because the government policy fell in 1997, combined with the influence of Asian financial crisis, Japan economy falls into 0.7% of the negative growth for a while again. The Japanese government was forced to take income tax and resident's tax of reducing or remitting, increase government utility investment and such a series of as welfare expenditure, etc. to stimulate economic measure in 1998, but still fail to turn back 0.4% of the negative growth situations in that year of Japan's economy. Slow rise appeared again in Japan's economy after April of 1999, but has come down again since August of 2000. Especially moderated the influence of rising with the price of petroleum by U.S.A.'s economy from the beginning of of 2001, Japan exports and fails with equipment investment, personal consumption is depressing, the price drops continuously. February, the Japan one growth rate of consumer price index (CPI) as- 0.6%, reach by level not minimum since 1999. On March 6, 2001 the Japanese government announced economy had already fallen into the deflation state that never appeared after the war. Japan made small straight rate of increase in the first quarter of 2001. But Japan economy shrink 3.2% in second quarter, declare Japan economy falls into recession for the third time of 10 years.
Since " bubble economy " collapsed, in order to realize the rise with prosperous economy, the Japanese government follows Keynes' doctrine, under the cooperation of expansion monetary policy of reducing the interest rate and increasing the money supply, numerous implementing the expansion specializing in expanding the government utility expenditure financial policies, is it is it make Japan economy even through finance increase fast in a short time to irritate to attempt. For example one cabinet of 8 moon palace ZeXi implemented the so-called " comprehensive economic countermeasure " of the scale of 10,700 billion Japanese yen for the first time in 1992, thereafter all previous governments imitate one after another. Up until now, Japanese government successively put out the similar amazing economic countermeasure 10 times altogether, it is up to more than 130,000 billion Japanese yen to involve the scale of government's revenue and expenditure. Should say last one year in century, in Japanese government to regulating against cycle course play an important role economic their financial policy of person who expand, have " pressed " the wave glided of Japan's economy to a certain extent.
However, are guided the influence of the theory and policy fault, especially the restriction of its one's own system and system " tired " ,etc., under the great dispirited background continuously of economy, fail to form " the finance is driven and increased " all the time between the finance and economy of Japan, the benign cycle of the back feeding finance that increase ", and Japan has fallen into the double mires of the economic crisis and financial predicament finally. In haze that economy increase at a low speed is it shroud to continue and under the situation that aging population develop rapidly, Japan's financial development trend is difficult to have a good prospect. Koizumi advocated the reform after appearing on the stage, announced " the economic finance ran the policy basically " last June either. But because it includes the content of " having an operation " to bureaucracy, also contradicts with current situation of Japan's economy at that time while pursuing, so Koizumi's structure reform can only " have difficulty moving about " . Have received and used some beneficial enlightenment to the financial policy of our country at present too in the analysis on Japan's financial predicament.
This text divides five major parts altogether, first part Through depending on the analysis in such three main financial indexes as degree and government's balance of indebtedness, etc. to financial deficit, national debt, prove the finance of Japan has already been in very difficult condition now. Second part the focal point is from such four respects as theory origin, immediate cause, question essence and government's responsibility, etc., have analyzed to the reason why Japan falls into financial predicament. The third part has discussed the plan for reform of financial structure of economy of Koizumi cabinet mainly. Finally, combine the above is it proposes to of our country some enlightenment that financial policy use at present in the fourth part to analyze.