日本泡沫经济的金融因素分析/

2019-04-20 19:37:27

financial economy 泡沫经济 bubble Japan



20世纪80年代发生的泡沫经济对日本经济造成了严重的影响,其后遗症至今仍未消除。日本泡沫经济的发生有着深刻的金融原因,在日本金融自由化进程中,由于日本金融制度的缺陷和宏观经济政策的失误以及由此所导致经济主体的行为异化引发了泡沫经济。随着我国加入世界贸易组织,改革开放必将进一步深化,认真研究日本泡沫经济的经验教训对我国防范金融风险和泡沫经济的发生有着十分重要的意义。
本文共分为五个部分。
第一部分,泡沫经济及其金融基础。首先,分析了泡沫经济的内涵和特点。泡沫经济是市场中资产价格严重背离实体经济而超常规的上涨,以及向基本价格回归的全过程和伴生的其它经济现象的总称。泡沫经济是市场经济的滋生物,它具有资产价格持续暴涨暴跌、扭曲社会资源配置和对实体经济破坏作用大等特征。其次,分析了泡沫经济产生的金融基础。泡沫经济作为一种经济现象,它的产生、形成和发展具有其制度基础,货币制度、信用制度和股份及证券交易制度为泡沫经济的产生提供了金融制度基础。同时,泡沫经济作为一种因价格波动而产生的经济现象,终归是由经济主体的投资行为而引起的。在现实条件下,由于经济主体并不拥有完全的信息而导致的投资行为异化和“羊群效应”为泡沫经济的产生和膨胀提供了微观金融基础。
第二部分,日本泡沫经济的形成、膨胀及影响。日本泡沫经济的形成开始于1985年9月“广场协议”的签订,日本为了阻止日元的持续升值而实行了超缓和的金融政策,造成了货币供应量的过剩,促使大量资金流向房地产和股票市场,泡沫经济开始形成。1987年,纽约股市的崩溃曾经消除了一部分日本经济中的泡沫,但日本担心日元的进一步升值会引起世界金融市场的动荡以及对泡沫经济危害认识的不足,继续实行超缓和的金融政策,刺激了泡沫经济的进一步膨胀,1989年泡沫经济膨胀到了顶点。从1990年8月开始,日本银行第四次提高中央银行贴现率开始,泡沫经济迅速地崩溃了。泡沫经济对日本经济的影响巨大,自泡沫经济破灭后,日本经济陷入了长期萧条之中。
第三部分,日本泡沫经济形成的宏观金融因素分析。本部分从日本金融体制的内在缺陷和政府宏观经济政策失误两方面论述了日本泡沫经济形成的宏观金融原因。在日本经济起飞阶段,日本独特的金融体制无疑发挥了重要作用,但随着经济的发展成熟和全球经济一体化的推进,日本金融体制的内在缺陷逐渐显露出来,成为了泡沫经济形成的制度基础。同时,日本泡沫经济的形成过程中,政府宏观经济政策的失误不仅丧失了阻止泡沫经济形成的有利时机,反而客观上推动了泡沫经济的膨胀。
第四部分,日本泡沫经济形成的微观金融因素分析。这一部分从日本金融机构行为异化和非金融机构企业部门行为异化两个方面论述了日本泡沫经济形成的微观金融原因。日本在20世纪80年代的金融改革中,存在不合理的制度安排和政府宏观经济政策的失误,市场机制无法正常运行,使得银行等金融机构和以大企业为代表的企业部门行为发生了异化,发生了微观经济主体的高风险投机行为,诱发了泡沫经济。
第五部分,日本泡沫经济的历史教训及对中国的启示。20世纪80年代日本的金融自由化改革是历史发展的必然,但作为主管部门的大藏省和日本银行在放宽与废除原有金融制度的同时本应以新的必要的规章制度加强管理,但遗憾的是金融主管部门对市场环境把握不清,忽视了微观经济主体可能的投机冲动,没有进行有效的防范和管理,导致了泡沫经济的发生。本文在总结泡沫经济历史教训的基础上,提出了对我国防范金融风险、阻止泡沫经济发生的对策和建议,包括:完善金融市场运行机制、强化金融监管和加强法制建设等。



The bubble economy that took place in the eighties of the 20th century has caused serious influence on Japan's economy, it’s influence is not dispelled yet so far. There are deep financial reasons in the formation of Japan's bubble economy, in the Japan's financial liberalization process, because the faults of the defect of Japan's monetary system and macro economic policy and alienation of behavior caused economic subject by this have caused the bubble economy. As our country joins WTO, reform and opening-up will be deepened further, there are very important meanings to studying Japan's bubble economy conscientiously and takes precautions against financial risks and bubble economy in experience and lessons of Japan.
This text is divided into five parts altogether.
First part, General theory analysis of the bubble economy. First of all, we analysis the difination and characteristics of the bubble economy. The bubble economy is real estate rise deviates from real economy seriously at the assets price in the market, and the whole course which the companion grow coming back to the basic price and the general course of other economic phenomena with the bubble economy. Bubble economy is the breeding thing of market economy, it have assets price rise and drop suddenly and sharply , deteriorate social resource distribution and destroy seriously to real economy continuously. Secondly, we analysis the financial foundation witch produces the bubble economy. Bubble economy as one economic phenomenon, it have their system foundation to develop of it, monetary system, credit system, share and stock system have offered the monetary system foundation for production of the bubble economy. Meanwhile, the bubble economy is as a kind of economic phenomenon produced because of fluctuating at the price, cause through investment behavior of the economic subject after all. Under the realistic condition, investment behavior alienation and "herd effect" that caused because economic subject does not have complete information have offered the micro financial foundation for production and inflation of the bubble economy.
Second part, Forming, inflation and influencing of Japan's bubble economy. The forming of Japan's bubble economy begins with the signing of "square agreement" of September of 1985, but implementation of the assuage financial policy in order to prevent Japanese money increasing of value in Japan, have caused the surplus of the money supply. Impelled a large number of funds flow real estates and stock markets, the bubble economy begined to take shape. In 1987, the collapse of the stock market of New York once dispelled the foam in some in economy of Japan, but Japan feared the further increasing of value of Japanese money will cause the turbulence of the world financial market, continue exceeding the assuage financial policy, which has stimulated the further inflation of the bubble economy, the bubble economy expanded to the summit pinnacle in 1989. Since August of 1990, Bank of Japan has increased the bank rate of discount for the fourth times, the bubble economy has collapsed rapidly. The bubble economy has great influence on Japan's economy, since evaporating in bubble economy, Japan's economy has fall into depression for a long time.
The third part, the macroscopic financial factors analysis of the Japan bubble economy form. This part expounds the fact Japan macro financial reason that bubble economy form from inherent defect and government macroscopic economic policy fault, At the economic celerity increasing stage in Japan, it is important that Japan's unique banking system has been undoubtedly given infusion to, but with the promotion of economic ripe and global economic integration development, the inherent defect of Japan's banking system is revealed out apparently , has become the system foundation that bubble economy form. Meanwhile, in the forming process of Japan's bubble economy, the fault of government's macro economic policy not only lost the opportune time of preventing the bubble economy forming but promoted the inflation of the bubble economy instead.
The fourth part, the microscopic financial factors analysis of the Japan bubble economy form. This part have expounded the fact Japan microscopic financial reason that form bubble economy from Japanese financial machinery behavior alienation and enterprise department behavior alienation. Because Japan among financial reform of the 20th century has unreasonable system arrange and faults in government of macroeconomic policy, market mechanism unable normal running, make such the financial machinery and enterprise department's behavior alienation take place, the risky behavior of the microscopic economy subject has happened , and brought out the bubble economy.
The fifth part, the historical experience of Japan's bubble economy and revelation to China. The financial liberalization reform of Japan was the necessity of development in the eighties of the 20th century, but Japan should strengthen management with new essential rules and regulations while abolishing original monetary system. But as the responsible institution, Finance Ministry and Bank of Japan did not recognize clearly the market environment, had ignored the microscopic economy subject possible impulse of speculation, have not carried out effective precaution and management, and caused the emergence of the bubble economy. At last this text has been put forward and expound suggestion to our country that how to taken precautions against financial risks and prevented the countermeasure on the basis of summarizing historical lesson of the bubble economy, including reinforce operating mechanism of financial market , strengthen financial supervision and strengthen the legal construction ,etc.