中日两国经济关系的进程、问题与前景分析/

2019-04-06 21:18:17

economic relationship China trade Japan



战后几十年来,中日经济关系在两国共同努力下,逐渐得到了恢复并取得长足发展。纵观两国经济关系发展历程,还存在一些问题,很好解决这些问题,有利于促进中日两国经济关系长期稳定发展。中日经济关系发展有利因素是主流,发展前景看好。
第一部分 中日两国经济关系发展历程及评价
一、小范围的民间贸易
1950年至1962年是中日经济关系发展的初级阶段。日本对我国实行封锁禁运,因而,经济往来主要在民间开展,采取贸易方式进行以货易货的商品交易。
二、半官半民的经济关系
1962年底到1972年两国正式恢复邦交前,中日经济关系的发展集中体现出半官半民的特征。在这一阶段,两国的经济交往依然以商品贸易为主要形式,但结束了以货易货的原始状态,进入现汇贸易阶段。半官半民经济关系是恢复邦交的需要。
三、邦交正常化的经济关系
1972年中日邦交实现正常化,在外交关系作用下,两国贸易规模逐年扩大,1973年中日双边贸易额为20.1亿美元,到1978年已增到50.8亿美元。此外,经济往来方式也逐步多样化,日益向更广阔的合作领域发展。但是,由于日本市场开放度小,中国还没进入改革开放阶段,因此两国经济合作没有突破性进展,例如直接投资活动寥寥无几。
四、改革开放后的经济关系
中国改革开放使中日经济关系进入了新的发展时期。随着商品贸易和直接投资迅速增加,金融合作也稳步增长。改革开放以来两国经济关系的发展主要有以下特点:
1、进出口贸易出现了新局面
1981年,中日贸易额超过100亿美元,比上一年增长了近10%,居中国对外贸易的首位。90年代以来,中日贸易额增长迅速,日本成为中国最大的贸易伙伴,同时中国成为日本仅次于美国的第二贸易伙伴。1987年后,中日贸易不平衡逐渐趋缓和,我国对日贸易开始出现盈余,中国向日本出口的商品中,制成品比重增加,逐步由以出口原材料为主向出口制成品为主转变。
2、对华直接投资迅速发展
1986年至1988年间,日本对华投资一直保持在2亿美元以上。进入90年代,日本企业对华投资出现了持续超高速度增长的新局面。尤其是1992年日资企业开始大量涌入中国,出现了对华投资热潮。无论从投资项目数,还是从协议金额和实际投入金额看,均呈现逐年增加之势。
3、中日金融交流与合作发展迅速
日本银行在中国开设的代理处不断增加,并成为外国银行在中国开设代理处最多的国家。与此同时,我国金融机构也在日本设立了分支机构。中日银行合作关系还发展到合资建立金融机构。这标志着中日金融关系在双边关系和多边国际合作等方面也取得了一定进展。
第二部分 中日两国经济关系存在的主要问题及其解决
一、贸易摩擦问题
由于中日两国在贸易统计原则、统计方法、统计范围及时间等方面存在差异,造成各方的统计结果总是自己这一方呈现逆差。另外,日本的国内市场保护色彩较浓。我国的贸易商在向日本出口时,普遍感到日本的商品流通渠道复杂、层次多、过程长,有的要经过几级批发,使流通成本大为增加。为了尽量减少贸易摩擦,确保双边贸易顺利发展,可从以下三方面入手解决问题。
首先,双方应在贸易统计结果加以调整,使统计数据尽可能反映真实的贸易情况。同时,要努力做到使双边贸易长期保持大体平衡。其次,中国方面要提高对日贸易档次。今后,中国的出口商品要进行结构调整,增加高附加值商品的输出。最后,中日两国贸易问题的解决,要纳入WTO框架之下。中日两国要运用WTO机制,有效解决贸易摩擦,以避免经济贸易矛盾的扩大化。
二、直接投资问题
1、投资数额相对低。2、投资规模偏小技术含量偏低。3、投资行业分布存在较大矛盾。4、投资的不持续性。5、投资短期行为问题。6、中国投资环境有待进一步改善。
投资领域存在问题,我国可以从以下三方面加以解决:
首先,我国要实施集团化战略,以规模经济实力对待日本投资者的挑战。其次,引进技术,消化创新,把我国企业改造成为技术开发的前沿阵地。最后,以进养出,开辟我国企业国际化经营的道路。
三、金融合作问题
1.日本将经济援助政治化。2.“中国威胁论”作怪。3.日本对中国金融市场存有疑虑。
为有效促进两国政府之间的资金合作,可进行以下对策研究:
首先,日本要彻底根除两国经济关系中的政治因素。其次,我国政府要加大金融体制改革力度以推进两国资金合作。最后,日本要彻底消除“中国威胁论“错误论调,以诚相待,发展两国金融合作。
第三部分 中日经济关系的前景分析
一、两国经济关系不会因政治因素干扰而遭破坏
政治因素阻挡不了两国经济关系良好发展趋势。日本资源贫乏,市场狭小,只有以经济合作为目标,才能继续保持和发展其经济强国地位。在日本,主张发展中日友好关系,扩大中日经济合作是主流。中国经济落后于日本,希望同日本发展经济友好关系,并在贸易、投资、合作等方面得到日本的支持。发展中日两国经济关系,不仅是中日两国的需要,也是推进东亚区域合作的需要。
二、两国贸易潜力巨大
从中国方面来看,对外贸易已成为国民经济持续增长的主要动力,因此,不断扩大同日本的贸易额是我国政府的愿望。从日本方面看,中国一向是日本重要的原料来源地和产品销售市场,今后中国在日本对外贸易中所处的位置还将更加重要。
三、两国直接投资有望扩大
从中国方面看,社会主义市场经济在中国的确立,使中国经济进一步同世界经济接轨;加大吸引直接投资的力度,我国正积极推行市场化改革,努力消除意识形态给经济合作所带来的障碍。从日本方面看,近年来由于日元升值,劳动力成本增加,日本加快了经济结构的调整和产业向海外转移的步伐,中国投资环境的改善和资源优势为日商提供了机遇。
四、两国之间资金合作有发展前景
日本是金融大国,是世界上最大的对外援助国,今后日本政府的贷款仍将是中国利用外国政府贷款的重点。当前,我国政治经济发展稳定,出口稳定增长,创汇能力不断加强,偿债信誉良好,债务负担适中,尤其是我国潜在的巨大市场对日本来说具有强大的吸引力,这些都是日本扩大对中国的政府贷款的有利因素。
结 束 语
中日双方只要遵循发展中日关系的四项原则,不断加强两国间良好的政治、外交关系,本着互用优势、互相补充、平等互利、长期稳定的精神,真诚合作,共同努力,在进一步解决好经济领域中存在的问题的基础上,不断发掘潜力,在贸易、投资和金融等领域进行更广泛的经济合作,一定能推动中日经济关系向更高的水平发展。



Since the post war ensuing decades, the economic relationship between China and Japan recovered gradually and made great progress under the endeavour of both countries, seeing the development of economic relationship there exist some problems. It will advance the long-term and steady development of the economic relationship between the countries to solve the problems properly. In the relationship, the advantageous factors are the main stream, so there exists a bright future.

Part I The Development Process and Evaluation of the Economic Relationship between China and Japan

I. The folk trade in small scope
From 1950 to 1962 is the primary stage in the development of the economic relationship between China and Japan. Japan took the measures of blockade and embargo on our country, so the economic relationship is mainly in the folk in form of goods-to-goods.
II. Semi-official, semi-folk economic relationship
Before the formal recovery of the both countries relationship, that is from the end of 1962 to 1972, the development of the both countries economic relationship embodied the semi-official, semi-folk characteristics. At this stage, the main form of the both countries’ economic dealing is still commodities trade, but put a end to the primitive form of goods-to-goods, and entered the cash trading period. It is necessary for the recovery of the both countries’ relationship to exist the semi-official, semi-folk economic relationship.
III. The economic relationship in the normalization of the both countries’ relationship
In 1972, the both countries’ relationship was normalized. On the effect of the diplomatic relationship, the trading scale between the countries widened year by year. In 1973, the bilateral trading sum was 2.01 billion dollars, in 1978 it had up to 5.08 billion dollars. Moreover, the trading forms were gradually diversified, developing to a wider area. But, because the opening scale of the Japanese market is limited and China has not entered in the economic cooperation, for example, there were few investing activities.
IV. The economic relationship after the reforming-and-opening
China’s reforming-and-opening led the economic relationship between China and Japan into a new developing period. Following to the rapid increase of commodity trade and direct investment, the financial cooperation increased steadily. Since the reforming-and-opening, the developments of the both countries’ economic relationship have ensuing characteristics:
1. The import and export trading appears a new aspect.
In 1981, the trading amount between the countries exceeded 10 billion dollars which increased nearly 10% comparing to the last year, and was in the first place among China’s foreign trade. Since 1990s, the trading amount increased rapidly and Japan became China’s major trade partner, meanwhile, China became Japan’s second major trade partner following the U.S.. After 1987, the trade unbalance between Japan and China appeased gradually, there appears surplus and in our country’s trade to Japan. Among the exported-to-Japan commodities, the proportion of manufactured goods increased, and the main exportation changed from raw material to manufactured goods.
2. The direct investment to China increased rapidly
From 1986 to 1988, Japan’s investment to China keeps above 200 million dollars. Entering into 1990s, the investment of Japanese enterprises to China appears a new aspect with the characteristics of continuing and super-high speed. Especially in 1992, Japan-fund enterprises began to flow into China enormously which resulted in an upsurge in investment to china. Both the investing items and the agreed amounts or the practical investing amounts appear a tendency of increase year by year.
3. The financial exchange and cooperation between China and Japan got a rapid development.
Japanese banks have been building more and more agencies in China and Japan has become the right country that has built the most agencies in China among all the foreign banks. Meanwhile, our financial institutes also built distributaries in Japan. The cooperating relationship between Chinese and Japanese banks had developed into such a depth that both countries invested jointly to build financial institutes. This marked that the financial relationship between China and Japan also has made a great progress in many aspects, such as the bilateral relationship and multilateral international cooperation.

Part II The Main Problems in the Economic Relationship between China and Japan, and the Settlement

I The friction in trade
Because there exist differentia in trade counting principles, counting methods, counting scope and time between China and Japan, the respective counting result is always deficit existing in oneself. Furthermore, Japanese domestic market is colored by protectionism. When our trade merchants export to Japan, they generally feel that Japanese commodities, circulating tunnels are complicated, have more levels and last a longer process. Some commodities have to undergo several steps of wholesaling, so the circulating cost is greatly increased. In order to decrease the friction in trade and guarantee the smooth development of the bilateral trade, we could start with the ensuing three aspects to solve the problem.
Firstly, both sides should adjust the trade counting results to make the counting statistics reflect the real trade situation at a best point. Meanwhile, both sides should keep the long-term general balance in bilateral trade. Secondly, China should improve the trade grade in the trade to Japan. From now on, China’s exporting commodities should undergo a construction adjustment, increasing the exportation of high added-cost commodities. Lastly, the settlement of the problems in trade between China and Japan should be brought into the structure of the world Trade Organization. China and Japan should utilize the mechanism of WTO, settle the friction in trade efficiently to avoid the enlargement of the conflict in economic trade.
II The problems of direct investment
1. The amount of investment is relatively low.
2. The scale of investment is smaller and the technological content is lower.
3. The distribution of invested business exist many conflicts.
4. The investment is not continuous.
5. The investment is often short-term.
6. China’s investing circumstance remains more improvement.
For the problems in investing field, our country could settle them from the three ensuing aspects:
Firstly, our country should implement the collectivization strategy, to deal with the challenge of Japanese investors. With an actual strength of economy in large scale, secondly, we should introduce new technology, digest and create it and transform our enterprises into the front battlefield in the technological exploitation. Lastly, we should utilize the importation to widen the exportation and open up international operation way for our enterprises.
III The problems in financial cooperation
1. Japan gives the economic aid with political elements. 2. “The view of Chinese threat” makes the impact. 3. Japan has doubts about the financial market in China.
In order to promote the cooperation of funds between the two governments efficiently, the following countermeasures can be studied.
At first, Japan must eliminate the political factors existing in the economic relationship between the countries. Secondly, our government should strengthen the reform of the financial system to promote the cooperation of funds between the countries. At last, Japan must completely dispel the wrong view of “Chinese threat”. And Japan should develop the financial cooperation of two countries with sincere treatment.

Part III The Prospect Analysis of the Economic Relationship between China and Japan.

I The economic relationship between the countries will not be destroyed by the interference of political elements.
Political elements can’t resist the good developing trend of the economic relationship between the countries. Japan is short of resource, and has a small market. Japan can continue to keep and develop the position of powerful country in economy by regarding the economic cooperation as the target. In Japan, the main stream is to stand for developing the friendly relationship and enlarging the economic cooperation between China and Japan. The economy in China is after the one in Japan. China wants to develop the friendly economic relationship with Japan and get the support from Japan in the aspects of trade, investment and cooperation. To develop the economic relationship between China and Japan is not only for the need of both countries but also for the need of promoting the cooperation in the East Asia area.
II The trade potentiality between the countries is enormous.
For China, the foreign trade has become the main power for the continuous increase of national economy. Therefore, the hope of our government is to raise the amount of the trade with Japan. For Japan, China is always the important origin place of raw material and the market for selling their products. In the future, China will be on the more important position in the foreign trade of Japan.
III The direct investment between the countries will increase.
For China, the foundation of socialist market economy in China makes the economy connect with the one in the world and strengthen the capability of drawing the foreign investment. Our country is actively carrying out the market reform, and trying its best to eliminate the barrier of economic cooperation brought by the ideology.
For Japan, Japan accelerates the adjustment of economic structure and the step of shifting the industries abroad because of the revaluing of Japanese yen and the increasing of the cost in the labor market. The improvement of investment environment and the advantage of resource offer opportunities for Japanese businessmen.
IV There is a good developing prospect in the cooperation of funds between the countries.
Japan is a powerful country for its finance, and the biggest aid country for other countries in the world. In the future, the loan from Japanese government is still the emphatic part for China to utilize the foreign loan. At the present, our politics and economy develop steady; the export increases steady; the capability of earning foreign exchange is reinforced continuously; the reputation of paying back debt is good; the burden of debt is moderate; especially Japan is greatly absorbed by the potential enormous market in our country. All above is beneficial for China to make Japan enlarge the government loan to China.

Conclusion

In order to promote the economic relationship between China and Japan to a higher level, the two parties should obey the four basic principles of developing the relationship between China and Japan, and continuously strengthen the good political and diplomatic relationship between them. Both countries should cooperate sincerely and try their best together based on the spirits of utilizing the advantage of each other, replenishing and benefiting each other, and being stable for a long time. On the base of solving the problems existing in the economy field, both countries should continuously explore the potentiality and cooperate in the areas of trade, investment and finance in more extensive range.