基于房地产行业的上市公司价值评估体系研究/The Empirical Study of Corporation Valuation on Estate Corp

2019-03-12 18:00:12

estate valuation inner Research values



在公司价值理论基础上发展而来的公司价值评估方法是投资者、经营者、理论界和监管当局所关心的一个重要问题。本文以“公司价值”内涵的界定作为全文分析的逻辑起点,从定量分析和定性分析两个方面,选取上海证券交易所A股市场的房地产类股票为研究对象,以产业的基本特征为出发点,结合国际上流行的公司价值评估模型,探索如何由目标公司的产业特征、经营品质、以及相关的财务数据中来选择较佳的投资机会,构建一套较为合理、完整的公司价值评估体系。
本文选取上海A股房地产业类1998年前上市的公司为样本,在全面考察目前国际上流行的企业估值模式的基础上,选用自由现金流量折现法、会计盈余折现法、市盈率评价法、市价/销售额法与市净率评价法五种模式,并利用Theil’s U统计量作为预测绩效的评定基准。研究发现,市净率评价法为房地产业的最佳评价模式。另外,由于当前理论基础比较完整的自由现金流量法以及目前实务中应用较广的市盈率法,在本研究中都没有取得太好的估值效果,作者对此专门解释了一些可能的原因。
本文通过对房地产的行业背景、供需状况以及外部环境影响因素等方面的分析,归纳出了与行业主营业务增长变化有关的13项变量,经过相关分析和逐步回归后,最终入选行业主营业务增长模型的变量有:固定资产投资完成额增长率、全国商品房销售额增长率、全国城市居民消费价格分类指数之居住指数和主营业务收入增长率的滞后一期值。在此基础上,预测公司的基本财务数据和内在价值,再与公司市场价格做出比较,以检验评估体系的优劣,并做初步的投资建议。
本文一共分为五章,第一章为绪论,主要介绍本文研究的背景、动机、结构以及国内外文献综述;第二章为房地产行业分析,详细介绍了中国房地产行业的产业特性、供需分析、价值决定因素等内容,为后文构建行业增长模型做理论上的准备;第三章为研究方法介绍,对研究方法的框架提出说明,并对所需参数给予定义;第四章针对所选取的样本对象进行实证检验并对结果进行分析;最后一章,总结了研究结论,并分析本文的研究局限,最后给出了进一步研究的建议。




This paper proposes to establish the best valuation model for estate corporations listed in A shares market of Shanghai Securities Exchange by the applications of evaluating corporate inner values with different valuation models applied internationally and using Theil statistic to check the performance of valuation models. And also try to find a suitable multiple regression equation of the rate of sales increase of estate industry. Combining both of the results acquired above, we will calculate the inner equity value of sample corporations to compare with their market values. Then make a conclusion about the discrepancy between them.

According to finance theories and characters of estate industry, in this paper, We choose five valuation models which are discounted free cash flow, discount accounting earnings, price/earnings ratios, price/sales multiples and price/equities models to evaluate sample corporates’ inner values. Then we get an answer through comparing theil’s u of five valuation models that price/equities ratio is the best model to evaluate estate corporation’s inner values.

Besides, on the basis of elaborate analysis of real estate industry, we find a multiple regression equation with a R of 0.857 and R square of 0.819 to explain the fluctuation of rate of sales increase through adoptiong correlation method and stepwise regression analysis.

Making use of both of the research results acquired above, we choose two corporations as a sample to evaluate their inner equity values. Then use these data to compare with their market values through which we confirm conclusion got above. In the end, a few suggestions for following relative research as well as some explains about our results are made.

This dissertation is devided into five chapters. The first one is preface, which introduces some background and motive of this research as well as summarization of relative literatures and framework of this paper. The second one is analysis of real estate industry in our country, serving for the following initial regression equation. In the third chapter, the research method of this dissertation is explained in detail. Then the outcome of the experiments is listed in the fourth chapter. And in the final chapter the author tries to explain the inhibition of this research and to give some suggestions to following researchers.