加工贸易发展对我国经济增长作用的实证研究/The Empirical Study of The Function of Processing Trade in

2018-11-15 05:09:12

加工 processing trade 贸易 GDP



自改革开放以来,加工贸易在我国获得迅速发展,在我国经济增长过程中的作用不容小视。早期的研究大多肯定了加工贸易在经济增长中的作用,然而随着我国经济结构的不断优化,部分研究者开始质疑加工贸易在我国经济的积极作用。
论文首先从理论上分析了加工贸易对经济的推动作用和途径,再回顾了我国加工贸易的发展历程。为进一步研究加工贸易对我国经济的影响,文章运用可变参数模型,采用ADF检验、协整分析、回归分析和Granger因果检验等多种计量工具,从实证的角度考察了加工贸易对我国经济的影响,研究得出:(1)加工贸易总量对我国经济的推动作用一直为正,并且这种推动作用不断呈现出变大的趋势,到90年代中期已经超越了非加工贸易,到21世纪对GDP的抖动弹性已经超过了12%。(2)在这种推动作用中,加工贸易出口贡献了53%,加工贸易进口贡献了47%。(3)加工贸易顺差在我国经济中作用显著,协整检验显示:加工贸易顺差同我国经济增长之间存在明显的协整关系,在长期中,加工贸易顺差每增加1%拉动GDP增加0.43%;运用Granger因果检验的结果显示:在滞后1期和3期的情况下,加工贸易顺差增长与GDP增长之间互为因果关系,加工贸易顺差的增长推动了我国经济的发展,同时,经济的发展也推动了加工贸易顺差的增长;但在滞后2期的情况下,二者之间并不存在明显的因果关系。
为此,文章进一步分析了加工贸易推动我国经济增长的途径,主要有:(1)加工贸易对技术进步与产业升级的贡献;(2)加工贸易对创造就业机会的贡献;(3)加工贸易对国际收支平衡的贡献;(4)加工贸易对吸引外资流入的贡献;(5)加工贸易的其它贡献,如扩大市场等。
文章最后提出了相应的政策建议,以继续引导我国加工贸易的发展,增强加工贸易在我国经济增长中的作用。



The processing trade had played an important role in growth of GDP in China after it’s reform and opening. The research of the earlier period mostly affirmed the positive function of processing trade in the growth of GDP, however along with the change of economy structure of China, parts of researchers start to doubt the positive effect of processing trade in our country.
The thesis looked back the history of our country’s processing trade at first, and then analyzed the positive function of processing trade to the economy in theory. To research the influence of processing trade to our country’s economy in empirical study, the thesis makes use of variable parameter model、ADF Test、Regression Analysis and the Granger Causality Test etc, and finds out:(1)The processing trade has been positive to our country’s economy, and this kind of push function presents a trend for become big continuously, having already surmounted non- processing trade in the mid 90's;(2)In this kind of push function, the processing trade export contributed 53%, the processing trade imported contribute 47%;(3)The surplus of processing trade has a strong function in the our country, the Cointergration Test shows: there is a cointergrated relationship between the processing trade surplus and GDP, in the long-term, the 1% increase of processing trade will pull GDP increase 0.43%; the Granger Causality Test shows: there is a cause-effect way between the surplus of processing trade and GDP when lags is 1 and 3.
For further, the thesis analyzed the pushing path of processing trade for the growth of GDP:(1)the contribution to the development of technique and the industrial upgrading of the processing trade;(2) the contribution to creating employment opportunities of the processing trade;(3) the contribution to the international balanced budget of processing trade;(4) the contribution to drawing on the FDI influx;(5)Other’s contributions of the processing trade, such as market ‘s extension etc..
The thesis finally put forward corresponding policy suggestion to continue to guide the development of the processing trade.