中日韩自由贸易区及其经济效应研究/Study of Economic Effect of China-Japan-Korea FTA

2018-10-29 11:04:08

10 China Japan FTA Korea



区域性贸易集团的增多已成为近年来国际经济关系领域的主要变化之一。而区域贸易集团的本意就在于:以区域为基础,提高资源利用效率。有关区域一体化的研究也成为国际贸易理论、新增长理论和新地理经济学文献的重要内容之一,广受关注。在这一浪潮中,东北亚地区的经济一体化进程明显落后于欧美地区,直到1999年中日韩三国才开始探讨开展制度性经济合作问题。虽然取得了一些成效,但进展缓慢。东北亚正成为全球第三大经济力量,从世界经济总量、国际贸易和跨国投资所占的份额看力量都不容忽视,区域内贸易和投资活动非常频繁,但是同欧盟和北美FTA的水平相比,水平仍偏低。本文中笔者对三国经济的SWOT进行比较,从各国内部和外部条件的比较优势和比较劣势来分析三国经济上的互补和竞争关系。然而,三国在建立FTA问题上立场存在分歧:中等发达国家韩国对此态度最积极;最大的经济体也是唯一发达国家的日本则持观望态度;而对发展中国家中国而言,建立三国FTA同样是机遇与挑战并存。与此不同的是,三国在建立共同FTA问题上难以达成共识,却纷纷积极向东盟寻求构建自由贸易区。文中笔者运用多国多部门静态可计算一般均衡模型(CGE)为基本工具,对中日韩三国进行FTA合作的几种方案(“10+1”、“10”和“3”、“10+3”模式)进行了定量评估和比较分析后得出结果:无论对中国、日本还是韩国,中日韩+东盟的“10+3”模式都是对总体福利提高的最优选择。同时也可以看出,参加自由贸易区对一个国家的总体福利影响总是积极的,而置身于自由贸易区之外,任一国家的经济利益都将受到不良影响。现在,中日韩三国还没有形成制度性经济合作安排已经成为东北亚区域内市场发展水平落后于西欧和北美的最直接原因。但是三国在推进FTA合作上,还面临着一些经济和政治上的障碍,使得三国的合作进程复杂化。笔者借鉴以往经验,对中日韩矛盾的调和和开展“10+3”合作的途径作了一番探讨。不论从地缘、文化、经济等方面看,还是东亚各国共同面临的外在竞争压力,将使走向联合成为唯一的选择。



The expanding of regional trade organization has been one of the most important phenomena in world economy, the basic idea of which is to improve efficiency of resource allocation. Study on economic integration is always paid attention, as one of the center content of Economic and Trade Theories. With tide of world integration, it is until 1999 that China, Japan, and South Korea started to discuss developing institutional economic cooperation. Though some achievements are obtained, the process is relatively slow. Northeast Asia is growing to be the third economy power in the world, with their big share of world’s GDP, International Trade and International Direct Investment. Internal trade activities happen frequent in this area, as well as multinational investment. Comparing advantages and disadvantages by SWOT models, we found their relation of complementarity and competition. Nevertheless, on establishing FTA, divarication always exists. South Korea, the mid-developed country, plays most actively, while Japan is more cautious. For China, China-Japan-Korea FTA is both opportunity and challenges. Comparatively, each country represents aspiration on establishing FTA with ASEAN. By using CGE model as a basic tool, writer compares the results of quantitative and comparative analysis of different FTA models (“10+1”, “10”+“1”, “10+3”), found that, the China-Japan-South Korea+ASEAN model could improve most economic welfare, no matter to China, Japan or South Korea. Besides, joining a FTA always make opposite effect to the country’s welfare, while leaving outside of a FTA will bring negative effect. Nowadays, no institutional system is the efficient reason why Northeast Asia falls behind in West Europe and North America on market development. Though difficulties inluding both economical and political factors make the cooperation more complicate, the competition pressure they face urges the cooperation a necessary and only direction to all of the countries.