商业银行不良贷款的中日比较研究/Comparative study of NPLs problem of Japan and China

2018-09-18 14:26:18

banks problem Japan 不良贷款 NPLs



商业银行是一国金融体系的核心,在经济中起着举足轻重的作用。商业银行业务的性质,决定了它天然所承担着较大的风险,通过银行自身稳健经营和严格的外部监管,可以把银行所承担的风险降低到可接受的水平。但是,在一定的环境下,保障银行稳健经营的体制会遭到破坏,外部监管环境也可能不够完善,这时,银行的风险就会凸现,巨额的不良贷款往往是这种风险的直接表现。商业银行经营的基本原则,就是实现资产的流动性、安全性和盈利性,而银行不良贷款即无流动性,也无盈利性,更无安全性,直接危害着商业银行乃至整个金融系统的正常运行。亚洲金融危机表明,如果一个国家的银行普遍存在大量不良贷款,就会使得该国的金融系统变得很脆弱,一旦受到某种外部力量的冲击,后果就不堪设想。
信贷配给理论告诉我们,不管是对银行还是普通投资者来说,总是存在贷款者的逆向选择问题。由于收益总是风险的报酬,敢于允诺高回报的投资者总会带来更高的投资风险,所以资本市场上的利率水平不能作为信贷市场上资金配置的手段,不能作为调剂资本市场上平衡资金供求的信号。结果,决定信贷的最终因素还是银行和投资者对贷款项目的判断。一方面,从微观经济的角度看,银行和投资者的收益其实就取决于他们判断的风险,而另一方面,从宏观经济的角度说,总体银行风险的累加最后就有可能酝酿出银行不良债权和金融动荡。
在20世纪60、70年代,日本由于其经济的高速增长,而成为世界瞩目的焦点;金融系统的高效运行与货币政策的强力推行,曾在战后日本经济的奇迹般高速增长中发挥过决定性作用,以致有一种流行观点认为,战后日本经济的持续高速增长实质上是一种“金融主导型经济增长”。进入90年代,日本又因为金融机构的不良债权问题,再次受到国际社会的关注。对于一个经营贷款业务的金融机构来说,出现不良债权,这是十分正常的现象。但是,日本的不良债权问题却有着它的特殊性,它不仅是一家或几家金融机构的问题,而是整个金融业普遍出现的现象,并且已经达到严重阻碍日本经济复苏的地步。所以从1995年末开始,日本政府逐渐采取坚决的措施处理不良债权问题。但由于日本不良债权规模庞大,而且已经深入到金融体系的核心,因此,它的彻底解决将是一个漫长的过程。
改革开放以来,我国的商业银行为我国的经济发展作出了很大贡献,同时也付出了高昂的代价,突出地表现为不良贷款带来的越来越大的金融风险,我国各大银行普遍都存在不良贷款的问题。不良贷款反映了我国微观经济运作体制中基本的和系统性的弊病,目前,国有商业银行的不良贷款与总资产之比超过20%,如此庞大的不良贷款是我国金融体系甚至整个经济体系的重大隐患,商业银行系统的不良贷款问题已经严重影响到我国商业银行的改革进程,影响到银行、企业的正常、稳健经营,形成企业改革和银行改革的“死节”,是牵动和影响我国改革和发展全局的关键性因素。对于如何应对商业银行的不良贷款问题,理论界、实务界参照国内外经验,提出了多种解决思路,本文不拟对这些方法、思路做详细的探讨,而是想就中日两国商业银行不良贷款问题的产生、积累和化解,做一个比较研究。
由于国情不同,中日两国不良贷款问题的直接成因不同,日本商业银行的不良债权问题形成于发达市场经济下的泡沫积累,而中国国有银行的不良贷款则源于经济体制的转变,具有浓厚的转轨色彩,但是从深层基础来看,两国的融资体系、银企关系、政府行为在不良贷款的形成过程中又都具有相似的作用,这就为进行不良贷款问题的比较研究提供了一个切入点。通过这个研究,希望从对比的角度对两国商业银行不良贷款问题作一个新的审视,为我国进一步认识和化解商业银行不良贷款问题提供一个视角。
本文采用横向对比的方法分析,在这一过程中,运用国际上关于不良贷款的通行理论,结合中日两国的具体情况分别就两国商业银行不良贷款问题的产生、积累和化解进行比较研究,进而提出我国在解决不良贷款问题上应吸取的教训和借鉴的经验。



Commercial bank system is the core of the financial system in every country,playing a crucial role in the economy.The nature of commercial banks means they are burdened with high risk.Risk could be diminished to a acceptable level through sound management and strict public supervisal.Howerer,in certain circumstances,the internal control and public supervisal would be found not effective due to some reasons,then ,the banks would be exposed to risk.Non-performing Loans(NPLs) is the most dangerous risk to banks.The basic principle that banks should follow is to maintain the liquidity,profitability and security of assets,but these three characteristics are badly threatened by NPLs.Accumulation of NPLs in the bank system would make the whole financial system very fragile,which has been proved through the eastasian financial crisis.
Japan was the focus of the world because her amazing speed of economic growth in the 1960s and 1970s.The financial system particularly the commercial bank system made great contribution to Japan’s economic miracle,some reviewers even regarded Japan’s long period of fast growing as a kind of “financially dominated economics growth”.Howerer,since the 1990s’,Japan’s commerical banks has be deeply indulged into the problem of NPLs,which is very concerned by the international society.As for a financial institution running loan business,the appearance of NPLs is normal,but Japan’s NPL problem is special because not a few financial institutions but all the financial industry of Japan have been involved in the problem.Japan’s NPL problem has become so serious that it has kept Japan’s Economy from recovering for almost a decade.From 1995 on,Japan’s government has been taking many firm measures to deal with NPLs problem and gradually contained the development of the NPLs problem ,but since the large amount of the whole NPLs and the internal weakness of Japan’s financial system,the final solution of Japan’s NPLs problem will take a very long time.
With the reforming and opening policy being carried out,China’s commercial banks have done great contribution to the China’s economy,however,at the same time,the commercial banks(especially the four big state-owned commercials) have taken a very expensive price of NPLs.Large number of NPLs leads to accumulation of financial risks which is a great threat to China’s future economic growth.NPLs reflects the basic and systematic weakness of China’s economy.At present,the NPL rate of state-owned commercial banks is above 20%,such large amount of NPLs has made seriously harm to the reform process of state-owned commercial banks and state-owned enterprices.
The national condition of Japan and China is different so the direct causes of the formation of NPL problem is also different.Japan’s NPLs problem was formed in the background of economic bubble in a developed market ecomomy while the NPLs problem of China’s state-owned banks was developed during the process of economic transformation.But the financing systems,bank-enterprice relationships and government action models of Japan and China play similar roles in the formation of NPLs in both countries. This provides us a new perspective to make a comparative study of the NPLs problem in both countries.
This article uses the method of horizontal compare to study the formation,accumulation and possible solution of NPLs problem in the two countries,then tries to put forth some experience and lessons of Japan that China should not ignored in dealing with NPLs problem,in this procedure some prevailing theories of NPLs are used.