《销售与市场》杂志发行潜力研究/The Marketing Potential Researching for Magazine

2018-08-29 11:21:18

decision market potential 0.3 magazine



中国加入世贸组织,对于传媒行业,是一个巨大的挑战。作为尤显幼稚的杂志业, 提高发行量既是增长手段,也是增长目标。但遍观期刊界,大家对于判断一个市场究竟有多大的潜力,见仁见智,缺乏一个共同的评判标准。没有科学的定量决策依据。由于缺乏严谨的数理基础,这种决策风险较高,往往与市场现实距离甚远。不是过高估计发行市场的潜力、造成资源投入的浪费,就是过低估计了发行市场的潜力,导致贻误良机。怎么来解决市场潜力评估缺乏定量基础的难题呢?
本文提供的解决方案是:结合营销学的基本原理,研究杂志作为一般商品的属性,得出那些与经销商和零售商的主观意愿及现实能力有关、与市场客观经济发展水平有关、能够反映杂志增长潜力的要素,进行分类整合后作为决策变量,构建研究模型,并以此计算目标市场的潜力值,作为决策者对市场进行评估时的参考依据。具体步骤为:
首先,根据对营销环境的分析,选定经销商和零售商作为研究对象;
其次,根据业界公认标准和借鉴其他行业的经验,定义出对经销商的细化指标:“产品组合(m)、配送能力(s)、销售网络(w)、对本刊的兴趣(i)、经营者思想(t)”,并赋予其权重和进行数据标准化;根据对杂志属性的分析,筛选出零售商的细化指标:“终端覆盖率(c)、销售周期(p)、与竞争类杂志销量的比值(r)”,也赋予其权重和进行数据标准化;
最后, 以上述决策变量为基础建立市场潜力研究模型:
Z=0.4x+0.6Y
 其中,
x=0.3m+0.2s+0.2w+0.2i+0.1t
Y=0.4c+0.3p+0.3r
Z是目标市场的潜力值,x是经销商潜力值,Y是零售商潜力值。
利用这个评估工具到市场中采集所需数据,并代入进行分析计算;以其结果作为营销决策的依据;政策实施后,再把市场实际反馈作为评价模型的标准进行二次优化,最终得到一个较为准确的评估模型,为制定发行政策提供定量化的决策依据。


Since China’s successful entrance of WTO, the media industry of our countries have been facing fierce competitions. As a developing immature magazine, in order to survive in global competitions, have to strengthen itself in the coming adjusting period. To achieve this target, the magazine has to expand its putting out volumes. Only by this mean it can bring about advertising incomes, derivation services, investments and brand benefits. Meanwhile, as a highly marketed magazine, expanding its putting out volumes is not only a tactic but also an important development object. But there is no accordance in judging criterion of a magazine’s market potential. It causes a head-strike decision that set an increase target when a publisher makes a decision without scientific quantitative analysis gist. The decision makers have a high preference of risk. For the sake of lacking precise quantitative foundation, the decision always has a far distance to the real market. Not only overrating the potential of publishing market wastes the devoted resource, but also underrating the potential of publishing market blunders away good chances.
Combining with the basic principle of marketing, this paper hopes to analyze the market surroundings of Sales and Market-a king of magazine-and the marketing factors of magazine itself; to focus on two researching field –franchiser and retailer; and to filter the decision variable such as the sale cycle, the rate of market and the rate of competitive magazine-which is strong-operative, high-weight and the best performance price rate. The steps of this research is as followed:
Firstly, according to the analysis of marketing environments, franchiser and retailer are selected.
Secondly, according to the legalize standard and other industry’s experiences, franchiser’s particular indicators are defined as followed: products combination(m), distribution ability(s), sales network(w),loyalty of the magazine(i), operator’s idea(t). Then we give theses indicators a certain proportions and standardized them. According to the analysis of the magazine’s properties, retailer’s particular indicators are selected as followed: terminal overlay rate(c), retail periods(p), ratio compared to rivalries magazines in sale volume(r), then we also give theses indicators a certain proportions and standardized them.
Finally, a market potential researching model is founded based on the decision-making variables mentioned above:
Z=0.4X+0.6Y.
X=0.3m+0.2s+0.2w+0.2i+0.1t
Y=0.4c+0.3p+0.3r
In this model, Z refers to oriented market potential value, X refers to franchiser’s potential value, Y refers to retailer’s potential value.
We use this estimation tool to collect dates and then analyses and calculate them. The outcome will become marketing decision maker’s assistant. After the market policy are practiced, we will use market response as estimation model’s standard to make a second time optimization, finally a more precise estimation model will be founded, it will be very significant to the market decision making of the magazine.